Yikes!

James Mirtle has an interesting post up about the starting goalies for the playoffs and their respective records.

Of all the number one goalies in this years playoffs, Martin Gerber has the second worst Goals Against Average at 3.48 (thankfully for Ottawa, the worst is Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury with a 3.77 GAA).

Gerber also has the worst save percentage of all goalies, with a meagre .854. Marc Andre Fleury is next on the list with a marginally better .880 percentage.

One of these goalies is going to step up and improve on those numbers. Which one will it be?

Black Aces First Round Predictions

I'm not going to go into the reasons for my picks because the papers and blogs are saturated with that type of talk right now and there's no reason to pile on the over-analysis. For Ottawa fans who might take me to task for my Penguins prediction, fear not. I'm terrible at predicting anyways.

Montreal vs Boston

Black Aces Pick: Montreal in 6 games

Pittsburgh vs Ottawa

Black Aces Pick: Pittsburgh in 5 games

Washington vs Philadelphia

Black Aces Pick: Washington in 7 games

New Jersey vs New York Rangers

Black Aces Pick: New Jersey in 6 games

Detroit vs Nashville

Black Aces Pick: Detroit in 6 games

San Jose vs Calgary

Black Aces Pick: Calgary in 7 games

Minnesota vs Colorado

Black Aces Pick: Minnesota in 6 games

Anaheim vs Dallas

Black Aces Pick: Anaheim in 5 games

Predictions Re-Visited.

Like a lot of bloggers, I'm dragging out my pre-season predictions (which you can see in full here) and by the looks of things, I've got some crow to eat.

I picked Buffalo to finish first in the East and the Tampa Bay Lightning to finish 3rd. They finished 10th and 15th respectively. Brutal.

In the West I fared a lot better and only missed Dallas who I picked to finish 9th but they ended up making the playoffs in the 5th spot.

I picked San Jose to win the President's Trophy but that ultimately went to Detroit with San Jose finishing a relatively close second.

I also picked the Ottawa Senators to beat the Calgary Flames in the Stanley Cup final, and while that's still a possibility, I don't think I'll be making those same picks when I make my post-season predictions tomorrow. Though I might hold on to Calgary. I figure Mike Keenan is due for a good run. I picked him for the Jack Adams award but maybe he'll just pot the Stanley Cup instead.

Around The League.... Pens Looking For Revenge... Buffalo and Carolina Make NHL History For Failures

The Pittsburgh Penguins aren't worried about a sloppy loss to the Flyers yesterday. They want revenge against the Senators on the heels of last year's first round loss.

"It's payback," Staal said. "I think every player in this dressing room wants to give it back to them for what they did to us last year."

By sitting Sidney Crosby for the final game, the Pens made it clear that they're not afraid of playing Ottawa because a win yesterday would have allowed them to play 8th place Philadelphia in the first round.

***

The Washington Capitals have capped a remarkable comeback season (they were in last place when Bruce Boudreau took over at Thanksgiving) thanks to Alex Ovechkin's Art Ross, Maurice Richard and probably Hart Trophy winning season. They now go on to face the Flyers in the first round. But a lot of folks in D.C. are giving the proper accolades to Boudreau as well.

"Boudreau's NHL coaching debut came the day after Thanksgiving at Wachovia Center, where Capitals won, 4-3, on a goal in overtime by rookie Nicklas Backstrom. In the four and a half months since that victory, Boudreau, a coach of the year hopeful, guided the team to a 37-17-7 record, including seven straight victories to close the regular season, and the Capitals ascended from last place to division champion for the first time since winning back-to-back titles in 2000 and 2001. "

And don't forget what GM George McPhee did at the trade deadline, acquiring Sergei Fedorov and Cristobal Huet. He can also take credit for seeing through the decision to entirely rebuild only 5 years ago as Thom Loverro writes about in the Washington Times:

"When we got eliminated in the playoffs against Tampa that year, we talked a few weeks after the season," McPhee said. "Ownership felt at that time we should tear it down. We were probably going to have a lockout, so let's rebuild it. They asked me, 'Can you do it, and will you do it?'

"We were sitting in Ted's office. I said, 'Yes, we will.'

***

For all the talk of the Ottawa Senators fall from grace, not many took note of the Buffalo Sabres downfall. In fact, the Sabres made some history doing it and joined an elite list of teams who hold some notorious records in the NHL. Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News has the story:

"The Sabres became just the third defending points leader to fail to make the playoffs the next season in the expansion era (joining only the 1970 Montreal Canadiens and 1993 New York Rangers). Buffalo’s 23-point drop from last year’s 113- point finish is the third-highest among Presidents’ Trophy winners since the award was first handed out to the regular-season champion in 1985-86.

And by percentage of points earned, the Sabres’ drop is fourth-highest in the Presidents’ Trophy era. "

***

No one can be happier about the Carolina Hurricanes missing the playoffs than Ottawa GM and coach Bryan Murray. He has been taking all sorts of heat for the four player swap with the Canes that saw Joe Corvo leave Ottawa and excel with his new team while Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore have been perceived by fans and media to have played average (I still think it was a good deal for Ottawa - remember that Corvo had asked to be traded).

That criticism will now be blunted a little with Carolina's failure. Now the Hurricanes are the only team in NHL history to miss the playoffs two seasons in a row after winning the Stanley Cup according to Luke Decock of the News and Observer.

Sens Will Have To Rely On Intangibles To Beat The Pens

After a long, miserable, and uneven season, the Ottawa Senators finally get back to the playoffs where at least they have had some recent success.

A trip to the Cup final last year won’t do them any favours against the Penguins, but it might stir up memories which leads to better focus and confidence.

And they’re going to need it, pal.

This might prove to be the most exciting first-round series in the league because the Pens can score in bunches while the Senators seemingly can’t play consistent defence and have suspect goaltending in Martin Gerber. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a multitude of games that feature 7 goals or more because Marc-Andre Fleury of the Penguins doesn’t exactly have a stellar playoff resume in his young career either.

But it probably won’t come down to goaltending in the end.

If the Senators are being honest and not just playing games with the media, the injuries to Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher are as lethal as you can get. Some are saying that Alfredsson has an MCL sprain while others are hinting that Alfie will be good to go in game 1 and that Bryan Murray is merely trying to keep the Penguins off-stride in their game preparations. Alfredsson has no visible limp when he walks but that doesn’t mean he’s healthy. It’s a long shot, but perhaps Alfie is not as hurt as Murray makes him out to be.

If Alfredsson does not return in the short term, the Senators can start booking their end of year party. The Penguins have two of the three best players in the NHL with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and a genuine power-play quarterback in Sergei Gonchar.

On top of that, they have ample grit with Ryan Malone, Jarkko Ruutu and Georges Laraque. The Senators simply cannot matchup with the Penguins except in two, key areas.

Gerber will have to shed his label as a guy who chokes under-pressure (he didn’t help himself by playing marginal down the stretch) and if he can manage to do that, he might give the Senators the edge in goaltending over a skilled but very green Fleury.

Meanwhile, Ray Emery sits and watches with a Stanley Cup run already under his belt and the cocky attitude that nearly every great goalie has possessed over the years. You couldn’t invent a weirder situation in sports. It’s unprecedented. Look for Emery to get in the net at some point because Gerber’s weaknesses could become too exposed when facing stars like Crosby and Malkin who absolutely feast on rebounds.

The other area is overall experience and the Senators have plenty of that. Even without Alfredsson and Fisher in the lineup, these players have seen and done everything. They’ve lost in every conceivable fashion over the years and somehow managed to bounce back and put it all together for one breathtaking run last year. There is not a crisis that this team hasn’t faced over the last 8 years, from ownership bankruptcy and missed paychecks to getting embarrassed by more experienced teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now the Senators are the underdogs, but they have battle scars, something the baby-faced Penguins don’t have yet.

It would be a nice comeback story for the Senators but I just don’t see it happening.

Prediction: Penguins in 5 games.

Around The League... Leaf Writers Sweep Out The Ashes... Cote Gains Respect of Fellow Enforcers

The Toronto Maple Leaf beat writers are putting the finishing touches on their annual post-mortem articles, decrying the soiled state of the hapless Buds. Paul Hunter of the Star calls last night's loss to Ottawa "embarrassing".

"Give the Leafs credit for one thing – they're consistent on home ice. They've stunk at the Air Canada Centre all season. It's doubtful anyone will lament the breakup of this edition of the squad when general manager Cliff Fletcher and his eventual successor continue the dismantling process in the off-season.

Last night was just another pathetic reminder of how bad they really are. They cobbled together an 18-17-6 record on their own ice, ranking them 26th in the 30-team league. Only the Islanders, Atlanta, Phoenix and Los Angeles were worse. "

Damien Cox finds coach Paul Maurice's decision to keep Vesa Toskala in for 8 goals a "firing offense".

"Afterwards, there were no speeches, no Grunwald-like public apologies, no shirt-off-our-backs ceremonies, no appreciative tributes to the ever-patient fans. Vesa Toskala, hung out to dry by head coach Paul Maurice to absorb all 60 embarrassing minutes in what may have been in itself a firing offence for a head coach, couldn't get off the ice fast enough. ...

Their "core" has been exposed as flaccid and wildly overpaid. Their management has been discredited and banished, with the team now left indefinitely in the hands of a man fired by the same team a decade ago."

***

The Buffalo Sabres have been officially eliminated from the playoffs and it's the fourth time in six seasons that has happened.

Not exactly a shocker. Gone from last years team: Daniel Briere, Chris Drury and Brian Campbell.

If the cheapness of the Sabres doesn't change, they're just basically a farm team for the other franchises. They put the time and money into draft picks and let them go when it's time to pay them for their success.

Next in line to leave? All-Star goalie Ryan Miller.

***

The best between periods segment on the Ottawa Senators pay-per-view last night was Chris Neil and Brian McGrattan sitting on a couch watching fights by classic enforcers like Bob Probert and Stu Grimson and even commenting on a few of their own taped fights. McGrattan said that Philadelphia's Riley Cote was the best up-and-coming fighter in the league and lo and behold, the current champion Georges Laraque says the same thing in a Dave Molinari penned article.

"He doesn't back down," Laraque said. "He fights open. He's a lefty, and ... he doesn't hold on. He just goes. It's unreal. I respect him a lot."

Ottawa Now Spezza and Heatley's Team

In a hit that will be forever enshrined on next year's Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em DVD, ex-Ottawa 67, occasional drunk driver and assaulter of Ottawa taxi drivers, Mark Bell, absolutely incinerated Daniel Alfredsson last night in Toronto.

The hit was clean and completely legal on Bell’s part, despite the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch calling it an “elbow to the head”. Bell actually caught Alfie’s shoulder, who then smoked his melon off the ice on impact.

Bryan Murray sounded the alarm bells when he declared that both Mike Fisher and Alfredsson would be out for a significant period of time, including the first round of the playoffs which Ottawa can secure for themselves with a point against Boston tonight.

.

This is now, for better or worse, Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley's team. Both played great games last night and Heatley seemed to wake up out of a month long slumber and looked like an emotional leader on the ice and on the bench. I've never seen Heatley do so much talking to his teammates. At one point, Heatley and Antoine Vermette got into a super-heated discussion on the bench and Heatley was yapping at Leaf players all night long.

As for the injuries, it’s a mind-warping turn of events but it will be interesting to hear more news about them as soon as the uproar dies down. Maybe they are as bad as Murray says they are, or perhaps Murray was just reacting emotionally and exaggerated their status for effect.

As for the game itself, the Senators pulled out a convincing win over the Maple Leafs with Martin Gerber calm and collected in the nets after looking a little shaky to start the game. Cody Bass was like a rabid wolverine out there, looking more like Chris Neil circa 2003. Antoine Vermette continues to play well under Murray, getting his first hat trick and making all the ladies swoon in the process.

Time is short today so we’ll look in on the Senators after the big game against Boston tonight at the Palladi…. Errrr….. Corel…..Errrr….Scotiabank Place.

Brian McGrattan and Jesse Winchester will probably get a chance to play against a Bruins squad desperate for a victory.

Alfredsson Crushed, Fisher Out For First Round

The Senators beat the Leafs but word is Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher have "signifigant" injuries. Bryan Murray says that both are doubtful for the first round of the playoffs.

Insane turn of events. More to come.

Around The League ... Jokinen Set For Dubious Record ... New Jersey Memories... Penguins Ready To Dominate

It's probably easy for Sens fans to remember Steve Duchesne's goal against Buffalo that put Ottawa into the post-season for the first time in 1997. Over in Jersey, they are remembering the 20th anniversary of John MacLean's goal against the Blackhawks that did a similar thing for that franchise.

"The greatest thing about that year was Johnny Mac's goal," former coach Jim Schoenfeld said. "I didn't even realize until after we won how much that game meant to everybody. I know they hadn't made the playoffs, but I had no idea the emotional investment a lot of people made and how that goal realized so many dreams. The game in Chicago is still my greatest hockey memory.

"In the annals of hockey history it's just a ... footnote. To our little group it was big. Even the Devils have gone on to bigger and better things. But it was a big deal at that time."

Sean Burke, the team's goaltender at the time, agreed.

"I remember the elation after that goal went in," Burke said. "I remember in the dressing room. (Former GM) Max McNab had tears in his eyes."

***

No one in the current NHL has played more regular season games and not one single playoff game than the hard luck captain of the Florida Panthers, Olli Jokinen. Next season, after 11 more games, he will pass Panthers assistant coach Guy Charron for the all-time record.

"It's people's choice. They can judge," Jokinen said. "Probably a lot of people are wondering, 'Why the hell is this guy still staying here?' That's the question I'm getting from all the other players around the league. I feel like the Panthers gave me a chance to be a player in this league. I don't want to let them down and go somewhere else."

***

If Ottawa Senators fans were getting their hopes up about Bryan Murray hiring his old buddy and current Red Wing coach Mike Babcock, they might be disappointed to hear that contract talks between him and the Red Wings seem to be progressing. That's good news for Detroit as Babcock is one hell of a coach. I still think the Wings will crash and burn in the playoffs when the games get more physical but he might be the guy to get them over that hump.

***

The game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers last night was one of the best games I've seen all year. The war between Scott Hartnell and Sidney Crosby was epic. Evgeni Malkin was once again dominant and he reminds me more and more of Mario Lemieux. They have the same size, height, skating stride, shot and reach. It's completely possible that Malkin will turn out to be as good or better player than Crosby. Even Marc-Andre Fleury looked completely different than the goalie who fizzled out against Ottawa last year.

It's the biggest no-brainer to say that the Penguins will completely take over the league starting next year. They might even make a heady run this June.

Easily the funnest team to watch in the league.

It Had To Be The Leafs

It’s unfortunate, but the Senators have to face old demons when they go into the den of iniquity in Toronto tonight with the playoffs on the line.

In the past, the likelihood of the Senators winning an important game against Toronto were akin to Nickelback writing a good song. It just doesn’t happen.

And make no mistake about it. Every hockey writer in the world is licking their greasy press box buffet chops in anticipation of Ottawa making another no-show against the Leafs in what is basically a playoff game in everything but name. It’s a seven game series wrapped into 60 minutes.

That’s how important it is for Ottawa to beat Toronto tonight. Not for the chance of going to the playoffs. But to keep old stigma’s from resurfacing and another summer of ridicule at the hands of the Toronto based hockey media who will be all too happy to point out that the Senators are “chokers” and incapable of standing up to the “character” of the Leafs. And they will be right if the Senators don’t win this game.

Yes, the playoffs are the most important task right now, but do you really think the Senators will survive a beating at the hands of the Leafs tonight?

This is the first must-win game since game 5 of last years Stanley Cup playoffs.

How the hell did the Senators manage to screw up so badly that it had to come against the Leafs?

Of all the teams, why the Leafs?

This will be a good test for Martin Gerber. If he can't excel in this type of game, he's never going to be the answer.

Around The League - Vicious Beatings and The Washington Resurgence

It looks like the already impressive Penguins are about to get a warrior back in time for the playoffs as Gary Roberts is aiming to play on Sunday after missing most of the season with a broken twig. That only adds more ammunition to a team that just might steamroll their first round opponent. Sidney Crosby is back to his usual self and Evgeni Malkin looks like Mario Lemieux out there on most nights. The key guy to watch will be Jarkko Ruutu. He's going to drive opponents insane (just ask Chris Simon).

***

Calgary is booming with workers descending from across the country to work on the Oil-Sands project (ie. the most pollution inducing project in Canada's history) but with that comes problems like massive gang violence and petty crime. Basically Calgary is turning into Canada's version of Detroit. The rivalry between Cowtown and Edmonton remains the same, and a young Edmonton fan found that out when he was beat to an unconscious pulp by four or five dudes in Flames sweaters. Welcome to Alberta.

***

How many of you think of Blue Jacket David Vyborny as a leader? I didn't until I read this column by Michael Arace who pens a nice tribute to an original Jacket who has reached the end of the line in Ohio.

***

People are completely freaking out in D.C. for the Capitals right now. They actually had a sellout last night and the bloggers, who until now have been given game passes from owner Ted Leonsis, got kicked out of their seats because some real media types showed up to eat Uncle Ted's buffet in the press box. For the best Capitals insight and good snapshot of last night's atmosphere in D.C. check out On Frozen Blog's take. It would be painful if this team fell short. It would only be good for the league to see Alex Ovechkin in the playoffs, as Mike Wise points out.

Frustration Mounts ... And A "Prison Night" Proposal

You can't get any points when you get shutout two games in a row and now the Senators are going to have to find a way to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday to ensure they still squeak into the playoffs.

Martin Gerber had another average game but you can't expect this guy to score as well. While he's not stealing games, he's not losing them outright either.

The power-play continues to sputter for the Senators but at least the team showed some tenacity and grit in the last half of the game and if that stays consistent, the Senators should get a win somewhere here.

Of course, not everyone was committed. Randy Robitaille in particular looked weak when he failed to keep a puck in on a power-play with just over ten minutes remaining and the Habs up 2-0. Robitaille simply bailed on the puck when he felt pressure behind him and a few plays later, the Habs had a 3-0 lead.

Another disturbing note is the abject failure of the Senators faithful to avoid getting consistently drowned out by a minority of vocal Montreal fans who simply walked into Ottawa's livingroom with their shoes on, took a leak on the carpet, drank all their booze and sang Na na na na Hey hey hey Goodbye to their hearts content.

Is there another arena in the league where the home team captain gets booed and the visiting goalie gets his name chanted over and over again?

There is no arena in professional sports, let alone the NHL, where this sort of idiocy takes place.

The Senators have had "Military Nights" where season ticket holders give up their tickets to the men and women in service. I propose a "Prison Night" where we empty out the Ottawa jails and stack the arena with the craziest, drunkest sociopaths available and see if those Habs and Leafs fans still find the nerve to take the joint over.

The most insane thought to consider is that the Senators could be virtually eliminated from the playoffs by the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday.

And we all know how the Senators have fared every time they've played a meaningful game against the Leafs.

Get the rye out. This could get ugly.

Fans In Panic Mode, Blogger Kevin Lee Freaks Out Completely

For all the panic that is raging in Ottawa about their beloved Senators possibly missing the playoffs (for the proof, see my description of Kevin Lee's blog at the bottom of this column), it should be remembered that Ottawa is actually closer to 4th place in the East and home ice advantage for the first round than they are to ninth place.

What are the chances that not only the Capitals surpass the Senators, but also Philadelphia and Boston? Not very good.

With a win tonight against a Montreal team ravaged by injuries, the Senators could find themselves in 4th place if the Islanders hold off the Devils to a single point.

The Senators have struggled lately but they are still over .500 in their last ten games with a 5-4-1 record. In comparison the Devils have a 4-5-1 record. Boston is treading water at 4-3-3 while only the Capitals are red hot right now with a ten game tally of 8-2-0.

Even if the Senators can salvage a single point out of tonight's game, they will still hold their ground with only two games left.

Things are tough lately, but the Senators are not exactly falling off the face of the earth.

Yet.

Coach Bryan Murray has already named Martin Gerber as the starter against Montreal and he needs to come up with a big game to keep the ever growing chorus of doubters at bay.

Don Brennan came out in today's Ottawa Sun and predicted that it will be Ray Emery, and not Gerber who will be in the nets for Ottawa's final game of the playoffs.

In tangibles, there's probably not much to choose from between Emery and Gerber. Neither one of them is very likely to win you the Cup on their play alone.

But when it comes to intangibles, Emery has the definite edge. He exudes confidence. He has the experience. He played all 20 of Ottawa's playoff games last spring, and all 10 they had the spring before that. Thirty games. That's a lot of testing under fire.

Gerber has a lifetime playoff record of 1-1. He's totally unproven at this time of year. He's also coming off another sub-par performance, this time showing a slow trapper.

Meanwhile, Emery is resigned to the fact Gerber is the No. 1 goalie in town.

"I don't think you change your mind about things right now," Emery said. "Marty's played well, playing in all the games the past month or so. Right now, he's the guy."

Can't say I disagree with Brennan on those points and I'll jump on that bandwagon right now as well.

But let's be clear. If Gerber proves me wrong, he'll get his share of praise on Black Aces and it will be well deserved. He has a lot of pressure on him right now and it's do or die for him if he wants to remain a viable number one goalie.

.

There's pressure galore for everyone on the Ottawa squad and they might just be running out of gas in what has been an epically long two seasons that peaked with a trip to the Cup finals and bottomed out with two consecutive shutout losses to the Bruins and Leafs which sealed John Paddock's fate.

.

The simple fact could be that the Senators are exhausted, mentally and physically. Even Jason Spezza, who usually giggles like a ten year old boy in every exchange with the media was dropping bleeps yesterday on camera.

.

It's quite clear that Daniel Alfredsson is hurt and the team needs to rest him immediately if they have any hopes of going far in the post-season, a prospect that looks dimmer by the day.

Don't count them out, but don't be surprised if the adrenalin isn't there when it's needed.

---------------------------------------------------------------

By the way, Kevin Lee over at Hockeybuzz has written a ridiculous column castigating a group of Senators players for going out to a nightclub after losing to the Bruins, even though they had the next day off.

.

It's sad enough to see a hockey blogger obsessing about the personal lives of players, but his claim that he's writing it because he wants to see some "accountability" from the players is a joke.

.

Memo to Kevin Lee: Since the dawn of the NHL, teammates go out for beers, win or lose. They are allowed to by any definition.

.

Lee even says that fans should be questioning whether they should buy tickets because of this.

.

Are you serious dude?

.

Worst column ever written. Period.

Some Senators Playing For Contracts Down The Stretch

Here's a quick look at the Ottawa Senators players who will become unrestricted free agents this coming summer and their chances (going into the playoffs) of getting another contract from the team.

Chris Kelly

Kelly’s stats are down from last year but some might say that’s because he didn’t have a very defined role under John Paddock who coached most of the season. There was also a long period of time when Kelly played in place of an injured Jason Spezza in 2007 and to expect him to match those offensive numbers this year might be a little much.

Regardless, Kelly is a perfect third line penalty killer and should be kept if his salary demands don’t rise above the 2 – 2.5 million mark.

Shean Donovan

Almost a complete bust under the Paddock regime, Donovan seems to be thriving while playing under Bryan Murray’s tutelage, showing the speed and tenacity he was once known for across the league. Donovan is on pace for his lowest point total since 2000 but he will be given another opportunity to impress during the playoffs when guys of his ilk seem to matter more than in the regular season.

The jury is still out but at his salary, Donovan is a risk free signing and may stick around next year if no youngsters step up to replace him.

Randy Robitaille

The journeyman centre hasn’t even convinced anyone that he should be in the lineup every game let alone get another contract. Passive and invisible some games, Robitaille has the ability to get streaky and pop a few goals in before going away again. He is also small and shies away from physical play. He doesn’t even seem to enjoy himself out there. The only player who smiles less is Markus Naslund in Vancouver.

There is no way that Robitaille should be kept in the fold. He has probably played his way out of the league at this point.

Martin Lapointe

The ex-Red Wing brings 2 Stanley Cup rings to the dressing room and has been fairly decent in his short time with the team despite having lost about two steps since his glory days. He is still a tough player and the Senators can use more like him. Unfortunately, it looks like Lapointe’s days are done in the NHL and expect him to retire a Senator this summer.

Cory Stillman

Since coming from Carolina, Stillman has 18 points in 22 games and there’s not much more you can ask for than that. Given that Stillman has already expressed his desire to stay in Bytown, there’s a good chance that Bryan Murray will make him an offer this summer. Making just under $2 million this season, Stillman won’t be getting a large raise but he’s a good option to keep some secondary offense on this team for next season. Depending on how you rate Jesse Winchester, there isn’t any immediate offensive help on the way from the farm.

Wade Redden

Everybody is convinced that Redden is as good as gone – and they’re probably right, but there are signs that Redden may extend his stay in Ottawa. Murray has already suggested that he may try to keep him despite asking him to waive his no-trade clause twice. Redden has also shown that he wants to stay in town.

As long as that stays consistent, Redden might surprise everyone and stay right where he is. He isn’t the same player he once was but he’s not as bad as the reactionary fans claim him to be. He can still run a play from the backend but seems physically shy since the new rules came into effect a few years ago where forwards are allowed to rush into the zone unimpeded. This might be a case of “you don’t know what you got until it’s gone”. If Brian Lee continues to play well, that hurts Redden’s cause significantly.

Luke Richardson

Ottawa’s own version of Reggie Dunlop has played way better than expected but it looks like he’s beginning to wear down as the season comes to a close. The question of re-signing Luke is not even realistic. He won’t be wearing a Senators sweater next year, or any NHL sweater. Look for Luke to perhaps get into coaching, maybe even as an assistant with Ottawa depending on who comes in to take over the head job.

Mike Commodore

This is a guy the Senators should do everything in their power to get under contract, despite his penchant for underwhelming everyone thus far. He will be cheap and has always been dependable throughout his career. The Senators should be getting bigger on their back end and losing Commodore won’t help that cause. He’s a proven winner and a future fan favourite.

The only problem is that Commodore isn’t sure he can play the Senators system and has said so publicly. It probably didn’t help that all hell broke loose in the organization right after he was acquired. First impressions are significant.

Senators On The Verge With Gerber

What is Bryan Murray supposed to do now? His choice of Martin Gerber to be the team’s number one goalie had some positive effect on the team in the short term, but now the ship is starting to list.

Despite fan rantings to the contrary, the defensive play of the Senators has vastly improved of late. When Murray did the unthinkable by breaking up Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov, the resulting new pairings have looked rock-solid at times with most of the egregious giveaways being committed by the forwards trying to help clear the puck out of the zone. Mike Commodore and Andre Meszaros are a great fit as is Wade Redden and Volchenkov. Murray now has balance on all three units, with offensive players buttressed by defensive ones. Right now Luke Richardson is the odd man out but he might play better in spot duty anyways.

But then it all comes back to goaltending doesn’t it? Murray was so adamant about Gerber being the number one guy that Ray Emery started collecting dust on the bench and his game is nowhere near where it should be in case Gerber gets injured, or worse, collapses in the playoffs.

And make no mistake. Martin Gerber is a disaster waiting to happen for the Ottawa Senators.

He’s certainly a fan favourite right now, but how much of that is due to the fans rejecting the “antics” of Emery en masse? It’s hard to fathom how anyone can have so much confidence in a goalie with one playoff victory in his entire career and a history of folding under pressure in almost every situation.

Yet Murray has chosen his man and he will have to live with the consequences. It’s hard to fault Murray as he seemed more preoccupied with putting the Emery media circus in the rear-view mirror. Starting Gerber in every single game but one since he took over was the way he did it… and it worked. There has hardly been a whisper about Ray except for the usual knife-in-the-back jabs from a still morally outraged Bruce Garrioch.

But what if the team has to go back to Emery to salvage their season? It shouldn’t surprise anyone if this becomes a real situation. Emery is the most successful goalie the Senators have ever had. Yet John Paddock very early in the season decided to stick with Gerber once Emery was healthy and we all know what happened after that.

Both Ray Emery and the Ottawa Senators organization have made some colossal mistakes this season. But they may need each other in the end anyways.

Clearly, the pressure is on Gerber to step up and start stealing some games the way every number one goalie does from time to time when his team is slumping.

The question is, does Gerber have what it takes? Has he ever?

It's not too late for him to turn around his reputation and live up to his billing. But who's willing to put money on it?

Not me.

The Two Faces Of Patrick Roy

Patrick Roy is the new convenient target for the anti-fighting interests in the NHL and there has been a colossal amount of newsprint dedicated to the now infamous scrap between the Remparts (who Roy coaches) and Chicoutimi in the Quebec juniors.

But the single best article has been written by legendary journalist Red Fisher of the Montreal Gazette and I highly urge you to take a look and see a master at work.

Fisher captures the strange dichotomy of Roy's personality like no one else. I don't agree with Fisher that Roy is ineligible to get his jersey retired in Montreal but he makes some good points.

"Roy was a man of many faces throughout his brilliant career. Pleasant one minute, a mean, arrogant and unforgiving SOB the next. The Patrick Roy who came to play and to win every night could be abrasive, controlling and vindictive, but that does not diminish his accomplishments. His NHL-high 551 wins speak for him, as does his four Stanley Cups (two with the Canadiens and two with Colorado), three Conn Smythe trophies and three Vezinas. ...

Early in the 1998-99 season, a furious Roy smashed two television sets and a VCR in the visiting coaches' office in Anaheim. The reason: he was not credited with a victory because he was pulled by first-year coach Bob Hartley. Even though he did not face one shot, backup Craig Billington got the win because he was in net when the winning goal was scored. Roy lost it again when the Denver Post reported the incident and falsely accused Valeri Kamensky of leaking the story. That led to a lengthy meeting between Roy, Kamensky, the player's agent and reporter Adrian Dater, who wrote the story. "

Then Fisher goes on to talk about Roy doing something really great for a sick young boy and even Fisher doesn't pretend to understand the split-persona that he's writing about.

.

Getting off Roy for a moment - About six years ago I was in the Ottawa bus terminal waiting in line for a Greyhound to Montreal. Suddenly I realized that Red Fisher was standing right in front of me, waiting for the same bus.

The first thing that popped into my head was, "Why the hell is Hall of Famer Red Fisher taking the bus?" and the second was that I should say something to him. I was going to Concordia University at the time for journalism and he was one of my biggest idols.

But I decided not to bother him. The weird thing is that Fisher looked incredibly vital for his age, despite being short and wearing the craziest pair of coke bottle glasses left on the planet earth. On television he looks like a mix between Woody Allen and Spencer Tracy but in real life he looked like he could break my neck if he wanted to.

Major Rule Changes Coming ... Goalies Main Target

Al Strachan made an appearance on The Spin last night (a show on The Score) with host Steve Kouleas and outlined some of the many rule changes the NHL is looking to make next year and one rule change that the NHLPA is fighting like hell to get passed.

Rightfully so, the NHL is set to put a target on the ever-ballooning goalies.

Strachan pointed out that there are serious discussions taking place that would see the goalies banned from playing the puck at any point behind the goal line.

.

Yes, that would mean the trapezoid would be eradicated and the netminders would be forced to intercept pucks they want to play ahead of the goal line. Any infraction would be a 2 minute penalty.

Strachan said that this rule had been discussed before and that the trapezoid was instituted as a compromise because teams that had strong puck playing goalies (Dallas, New Jersey) were selfishly opposed to the change. Now that almost every goalie coming into the league can play the puck as well as everyone else, no team is going to be adversely effected more than another and thus the GM’s are prepared to bite the bullet “for the good of the game”.

There is also an interesting rule change proposed that would see goalies forced to play the puck (instead of freezing it for a faceoff) on shots that come from outside the offensive zone.

That means that goalies will not be able to stop the play when an opposing team shoots the puck in and beats the defending team to the net. If the goalie does not keep the puck in play, a 2 minute Delay of Game penalty would be assessed. Strachan noted that teams will change their strategy if this rule comes into effect by sending wobbly, off-speed bouncing pucks in from the blueline and skating hard by the defence who won’t be able to rely on their goalie stopping the play by collapsing.

The next change Strachan thinks is a done deal is that after a penalty call, the ensuing faceoff will take place in the offending teams zone no matter where on the ice the play was whistled down.

.

The thinking behind this is that teams who take a penalty sometimes get off easy when the faceoff takes place in the neutral zone. This will allow teams on the power-play to more fully maximize their opportunities. Right now, some believe too much time is spent just trying to get set up in the offensive zone. Undoubtedly this will result in more goals, something the league is pushing for.

The goalie equipment is set to shrink again and Strachan says that the upper body armour will be the main area targeted. He also said that the leg pads will be shrunk “another few inches”. The NHL plans to force the goalies on this one, using the threat of bigger nets to back down the very vocal and powerful goaltender fraternity. Black Aces suggests that those insanely huge catching gloves be reduced to at least 1/3rd their current size. Why do goalies need bigger gloves than baseball catchers? It’s an absolute joke.

And lastly, Strachan suggested that the NHLPA is adamant that the league institute no-touch icing strictly as a safety issue for its members. New NHLPA boss Paul Kelly is said to be pushing extremely hard for this despite stubborn opposition from NHL GM’s.

The Hockey News Weighs In On Emery ... And You'd Be Surprised

The "Bible of Hockey" has centred their coverage this week around the Ottawa Senators with Jason Kay and senior writer Mike Brophy weighing in on the misadventures of Eugene (What Fraud?) Melnyk's boys.

Perhaps the most controversial piece is Editor Jason Kay's column. Kay is probably the first national writer to give Ray Emery the benefit of the doubt and see through the massively overblown media circus that has engulfed the 25 year old goalie.

From The Hockey News (Jason Kay):

"Somewhere, somehow, Emery has become the greatest "scourge" in Ottawa since Alexei Yashin; an individual so contagious with disease, he has single-handedly dragged a championship-calibre team to mediocrity. ...

But if, as we suspect, this story has cascaded from a leaky faucet into Niagara Falls, could somebody please call a plumber?

We don't doubt Emery has caused a distraction in a dressing room anxious for a turnaround, but in this industry, rumors, innuendo and "true stories" tend to balloon like a baseball player on HGH. ... Fans and the media ... love to look for scapegoats, something with horns on which to hang juicy stories. ...

The players may not be able to control their netminder, but they can control how they feel about it and how they react to it. Using it as an excuse for the team's second half swoon is lame and, quite frankly, wearisome."

If anything, it's refreshing to hear a pundit have a rational take on the Emery situation. It's not a popular position to infer that Emery is anything but Satan himself and I get reminded of this every time I write about it with people calling me an idiot in the comments section and filling my email box with suggestions that are... well, impossible.

Conventional wisdom and popular opinion are a funny thing. You either get on board with the screaming masses or you get scalped by insane Martin Gerber fans out to squash any dissident opinion.

The only thing keeping Yashin the all-time goat in Senators history is the fact that some lunatics in Arnprior actually burned Yashin in effigy in 2000.

Some will call that passion. I call that "stay away from Arnprior...forever."

Winchester Skates, Redden Still Out

According to TSN, newly signed Jesse Winchester skated with the Ottawa Senators today at practice and might even get into Thursday's rematch against Buffalo.

Who would sit? Has to be Randy Robitaille who didn't do much last night after playing uncharacteristically physical against Montreal on Monday. The only snag is that Winchester is still recovering from a shoulder he injured in college.

Also of note, Wade Redden is now listed as having an "injured left knee" and the defense pairings stayed the same as last nights successful experiment which means that rookie Brian Lee will get another chance to play with Chris Phillips on Thursday.

Give Bryan Murray credit for pairing Lee with Phillips, who's as solid and reliable as they come. It means that Lee will get a lot of minutes for a guy with one game under his belt but he seems capable so far.

It would be one hell of a story if both Lee and Winchester stick around and play during the Senators playoff run.

From the looks of it, Winchester played centre between Chris Neil and Christoph Schubert at practice but they also have Chris Kelly pencilled in between Shean Donovan and Martin Lapointe.

Has Kelly magically healed ridiculously early or is TSN inaccurate?

We'll wait and see.

More Fallout From Buffalo

As can be expected, the fans and media in Buffalo are in shock about the Sabres third period collapse against a very fragile Senators squad that all but eliminated them from the playoffs.

John Vogl captures the mood quite nicely for the Buffalo News:

"The sign kept popping up on the video board, and the faithful would cheer whenever they’d see it. “If you still believe make some noise.”

In the end, there was no one around to make noise. If the kid holding the sign was still around, that kid was the only one. During a collapse like that, fans and belief disappear in a hurry. ....

“It’s devastating,” Sabres coach Lindy Ruff said. “That really hurts.”

Bucky Gleason points out that goalie Ryan Miller is not having a strong season and that he has to share a lot of the blame for the Sabres lost season:

" ... when was the last time Miller won a game by himself?

He’s ranked 21st in goals-against average and 25th in save percentage this season. He made his 29th consecutive start Tuesday night. On Thursday in Ottawa, he’s expected to tie the franchise record for goaltenders with his 72nd appearance this season. There have been times he’s looked mentally fried, but Ruff has refused to buy into that excuse. And nobody else should, either.

Mike Harrington of the Sabres Edge blog sounds depressed:

"Tuesday's 6-3 loss to Ottawa was the most inexcusable one in a season full of them. Five goals in the last 7:40. A short-handed goal waking up an Ottawa team clearly dead from two games in two nights.

There were a good number of empty seats tonight. Those folks have given up. They're probably right. Anybody care to disagree?"

Sabres Collapse In Third Period ... Senators Switch Up Defense Pairings

That was quite the see-saw game between the Sabres and Senators which saw Ottawa score 5 goals in the last 8 minutes to overcome a 3-1 deficit.

The biggest surprise of this game was definitely the new defence pairings that Bryan Murray put together. And it paid off.

Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov were finally broken up and if last night is any indication, it might stay that way.

Phillips played with rookie Brian Lee who was very good in his first NHL game. Volchenkov paired up with veteran Luke Richardson and Mike Commodore played with Andre Meszaros as Wade Redden sat out due to a leg injury.

All three pairings played well through most of the game with only a few breakdowns, notably with the Commodore-Meszaros pairing. Richardson seemed a little more assertive playing with Volchenkov and Phillips easily meshed with the slick skating Lee.

Daniel Alfredsson will get most of the accolades, but the comeback was started by a nifty shorthanded goal by Dean McAmmond. His fourth line with Shean Donovan really stepped it up in the third. Until that point, Ottawa's first line was invisible and they still look fatigued from a long season. Murray has to find a way to rest Alfredsson if they clinch a playoff spot.

Martin Gerber was average and the three goals were largely the product of giveaways and bad bounces, but he has to play better and make those stops once in a while. His rebound control continues to be abysmal but with Ray Emery rustier than a farm nail, there is no other choice but to live with it.

The only Ottawa Senator who played less than ten minutes was Chris Neil with 6:58 of ice time as Murray slowly works him back into game shape after missing some time with an injury.

Win or lose, at least the whole team is contributing under Murray and not just an elite few who toiled under John Paddock's ill-conceived reign.

The Sabres get a chance for redemption on Thursday night in Ottawa but are now 5 points back of Boston (who crushed Toronto Tuesday night) for 8th place. The Sabres still have six games remaining, including two against the Bruins.

Ottawa meanwhile has only 5 games left until the playoffs.

The bar owners on Elgin Street, re-dubbed "Sens Mile", are licking their chops at the prospect.

"We Hate Those F*!#ing Guys"

With the Senators in Buffalo tonight, home of the wretched Goo Goo Dolls, the Queen City papers are trying to rev up the Sabres fans by painting the matchup as a fierce rivalry.

John Vogl of the Buffalo News tells us how the Sabres players are trying to get newcomer Steve Bernier into the spirit:

"Steve Bernier is still new to the Buffalo Sabres, so he was getting the quick rundown on the rivalry with the Ottawa Senators. Buffalo knocked Ottawa from the playoffs two years ago. Ottawa eliminated Buffalo last year. The teams had a huge brawl.

“We hate those [expletive] guys,” one of Bernier’s teammates chimed in.

Yeah, that about sums it up. Imagine how much the hatred will grow if Ottawa knocks Buffalo out of the postseason again, this time before it even starts."

Bryan Murray has decided to put Martin Gerber back in the net tonight. This is an absolutely huge game for Gerber if he's to put away those criticisms that are coming back to haunt him (as Roy MacGregor notes in his column). The notoriously streaky and mentally fragile goalie is starting to look twitchy again. Bring in the shrinks.